Wednesday, 22 June 2016

EU Referendum - what to do

The referendum is finally here... It has been the longest most painful political campaign in living memory. I'm not sure either side has showered themselves in glory, which has only led to mass confusion. Firm Brexiters have said we should go, it will all be OK. Firm remainers have said if we leave armageddon will happen.

You have all been bombarded with arguments and spurious facts over the last few months. David Cameron and George Osborne have tried to frighten us silly with talks of making us suffer if we vote to leave. Boris and Nigel Farrage have said the UK will sink in Immigration if we don't. I'll leave you to decipher all of the arguments.

But what will happen if we do vote Brexit? David Cameron would attend an emergency meeting of the European Council and tell his European chums that we have voted to leave the EU. Apparently this triggers negotiations under article 50 of the Eu Treaties, this has to be concluded within 2 years. Some say the UK economy will plummet, some say it will be fine, whatever your opinion there will be a lot of uncertainty, which usually spells bad news. It may well trigger a host of different countries to follow suit. Almost certainly David Cameron would resign as PM, sparking a leadership battle.

What if we stay? It will depend on how close it is. If, as the polls suggest, it will be very close, the David Cameron may well not survive, leading to a leadership contest. Given how Boris has been during this campaign, he may not find many friends to support him. So, we would have a period of uncertainty, and we have already said what happens when that comes along. We would also have to try and get back into the EU club proper, and hope they will all forgive the UK upstarts.

So the long and short of the vote tomorrow is we are heading for a period of uncertainty, it just depends how long it will be really...

Make sure you vote though, as all the political soothsayers are saying it will come down to which side gets their vote out...

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